Probabilistic Life Assessment of Gas Turbine Blade Alloys under Creep

Deformations occur gradually in the gas turbine components since they are working under high temperature and stress. In the turbine blade alloys, creep is the most significant failure mechanism. In this research, creep life has been estimated for the blade alloys by considering humidity. A method is proposed to estimate the creep life by direct consideration of humidity on the creep life of the gas turbine blade. In the proposed model, the humidity factor is added to the classic Larson Miller creep life estimation method. This model is capable of predicting creep life with known dry temperature (Water Air Ratio=0), mechanical stress, and humidity. In this approach, there is no need to measure blade temperature variation during operation. As a case study, the creep life of first-stage turbine blade alloy is predicted using the proposed method and benchmarked with published (Finite element analysis) FEA results. The reliability of the blades was estimated by considering different success criteria using Monte Carlo simulation. The reliability of the creep rupture life of Nimonic-90 steel was carried out using SCRI mode based on the Z-parameter. The scattered data has been considered for creep rupture of materials in this part. The results show that creep life increases with humidity increase. It is also shown that with an increase in mechanical stress and temperature fluctuations, the reliability of the turbine blade creep life decreases sharply.