Title of article :
Projection of the Epidemics Trend of COVID-19 in Qom, Iran: A Modeling Study
Author/Authors :
Nakhaeizadeh ، Mehran Modeling in Health Research Center, Institute for Futures Studies in Health, HIV/STI Surveillance Research Center and WHO Collaborating Center for HIV Surveillance, Institute for Futures Studies in Health - Kerman University of Medical Sciences , Jahani ، Yunes Department of Biostatistics and Epidemiology - Modeling in Health Research Center, Institute for Futures Studies in Health, School of Public Health - Kerman University of Medical Sciences , Sharifipour ، Ehsan Neuroscience Research Center, School of Medicine - Qom University of Medical Sciences , Mohammadbeigi ، Abolfazl Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics - Research Center for Environmental Sciences, Faculty of Health - Qom University of Medical Sciences , Koohpaei ، Alireza Occupational Health Safety Department - Faculty of Health - Qom University of Medical Sciences , Sharifi ، Hamid Department of Biostatistics and Epidemiology - School of Public Health, HIV/STI Surveillance Research Center and WHO Collaborating Center for HIV Surveillance, Institute for Futures Studies in Health - Kerman University of Medical Sciences , Garkaz ، Omid School of Public Health - Shahroud University of Medical Sciences , Ahmadi Gohari ، Milad Modeling in Health Research Center, Institute for Futures Studies in Health - Kerman University of Medical Sciences , Haghdoost ، Ali Akbar Modeling in Health Research Center, Institute for Futures Studies in Health, HIV/STI Surveillance Research Center and WHO Collaborating Center for HIV Surveillance, Institute for Futures Studies in Health - Kerman University of Medical Sciences , Aghaali ، Mohammd Neuroscience Research Center, School of Medicine - Qom University of Medical Sciences , Vahedian ، Mostafa Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics - Research Center for Environmental Sciences, Faculty of Health - Qom University of Medical Sciences
Abstract :
Background: Coronavirus is one of the major pathogens of the human respiratory system and a major threat to the human health. Objectives: This modeling study aimed to project the epidemics trend of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Qom, Iran Methods: This study projected the COVID-19 outbreak in Qom using a modified susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered (SEIR) compartmental model by the end of December 2020. The model was calibrated based on COVID-19 epidemic trend in Qom from 1 January to 11 July. The number of infected, hospitalized, and death cases were projected by 31 December. A Monte Carlo uncertainty analysis was applied to obtain 95% uncertainty interval (UI) around the estimates. Results: According to the results, the reduced contact rate and increased isolation rate were effective in reducing the size of the epidemic in all scenarios. By reducing the contact rate from eight to six, the number of new cases on the peak day, as well as the total number of cases admitted to the hospital by the end of the period (31 December), decreased. For example, in Scenario A, compared to Scenario E, with a decrease in contact rate from eight to six, the number of new cases on peak days decreased from 15,700 to 1,100. The largest decrease in the number of new cases on peak days was related to Scenario F with 270 cases. Also, the total number of cases decreased from 948,000 to 222,000 between the scenarios, and the largest decrease in this regard was related to Scenario F, with 188,000 cases. Conclusions: The parameters of contact rate and isolation rate can reduce the number of infected cases and prevent the outbreak, or at least delay the onset of the peak. This can help health policymakers and community leaders to upgrade their health care systems.
Keywords :
COVID , 19 , Projection , Epidemics Trend , Modeling Study
Journal title :
Archives of Clinical Infectious Diseases
Journal title :
Archives of Clinical Infectious Diseases
