Statistical Assessment of Trend Analysis on Production of Wheat Crop over India

Wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) is the basic required and stable food of every household from centuries. It has an important place in the world as it possesses high potential in nutrition point of view, gives good health, covers food security, etc. All the researchers are very much enthusiastic to know the growth and decline rates of trends in wheat production because of its high benefits. The main objectives of this study are to examine the change point and trend analysis for wheat production on the basis of time and spatial scale of major wheat producing states of India. This study has considered various prominent non-parametric methods i.e. Pettitt’s, Standard normal homogeneity (SNH) and Buishand’s range tests. The core purpose of these three techniques is to capture the mutation point in time series data connected to wheat production during the period 1980-2016. Consequently, Sen’s slope estimator has been used to measure the magnitude of the trend for wheat production and their significances examined through Mann Kendall (M-K) test. The analysis provided a clear idea about the trends of wheat production over India. The results exhibit that all the states showed the raising trends. The notable observation is that the trend of Madhya Pradesh got highest Sen’s slope estimator (i.e. 1541.999/ year) in the second segmentation period. At present, the production of wheat is highly improved in Madhya Pradesh compared to other states from 2008. However, the production of wheat has been decreased in Uttar Pradesh compared to previous years but it holds the leading position in wheat production still in the country.