Forecasting sea level rise and its fluctuations in Khanh Hoa coastal area in Vietnam

Sea level are increasing under the influence of climate change, especially in recent decades. Assessing the trend (increase/decrease) and forecasting changes in sea level makes an important contribution to socio-economic development planning and national defense and security in coastal areas. Water level fluctuations in Khanh Hoa water basin over the past decades (1975-2021) were analyzed using linear regression method, from hourly actual water level data measured at the Oceanographic and Environmental Monitoring station Cau Da beach school that is managed by the Institute of Oceanography. Average sea level tends to decrease from 1975 to around 1998, then increases rapidly from 1998 to 2021, the period of local sea level decrease is recorded from 2016 to 2021. In general, in the period from 1975 to 2021, the average sea level tends to increase with an estimated increase of 2.58 ± 0.38 mm/year. It is forecasted that in the near term (the next 10 years), the average sea level will increase by about 2,521 cm.