Impact of Climate Change on The Habitat of the Eurasian Otter in the Southwest of Iran

Aims: This research examined the impact of climate change on the habitat of the Eurasian otter (Lutra lutra) in the Province of Khuzestan based on habitat modeling in R regarding climate scenarios and the MRI-ESM2-0 general circulation model. Materials and Methods: Totally, 72 points were recorded, and 10 climatic and environmental variables were used as inputs for the models. Three different methods were used for assessing model accuracy, namely the ROC curve, TSS, and Kappa coefficient. Results: In the ROC model, AUC 0.7–0.8 indicates a suitable model, AUC 0.8–0.9 indicates a strong model, and AUC 0.9 indicates a very strong model. In the TSS model, a value of 0.75 indicates excellent diagnostic power, a value of 0.4–0.75 indicates good diagnostic power, and a value of 0.4 indicates weak diagnostic power. The Kappa coefficient (0.39–0.98) shows good prediction accuracy. The RF and GBM were the best for determining the habitat of the Eurasian otter in Khuzestan. River distance, BIO1, and BIO3 had the greatest role in habitat suitability. A total of 9176.185 km² of Khuzestan was identified as a suitable habitat. The prediction of the changes in the distribution of the species based on SSP126, SSP370, and SSP585 showed that the habitat of this species would decrease until the year 2070. Conclusion: Climate change significantly affects the distribution of the Eurasian otter. Similar to other studies on animal and plant species, it leads to habitat reduction and alterations in habitat ranges.