Has world cereal market instability increased?

This paper focuses on the feasibility of reducing the number of individuals that are food insecure to about 700 million by 2015. A sufficient statistic to characterize the level and distribution of income in 134 countries is developed and regressed on variables hypothesized to be its major determinants. A global general equilibrium model is then calibrated to data and experiments performed that change the levels of these variables. The results show that attaining the 700 million target is feasible, but unlikely. Growth in economy-wide total factor productivity, agricultural factor productivity and labor productivity is analyzed. c 2000 Published by Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.