Energy resources in Arab countries: an overview

Now we must make a very rapid transition to a new management and use of energy our capital needs will be almost unprecedented and the likelihood of both technical and social strains is very high. The technology for producing synthetic gaseous and liquid fuels from shale and coal should be brought to a state of readiness by government and industry.....By the early part of the next century, we will sorely need the Afuels that a mature synthetic-fuel industry can provide..... Government Aincentives to develop and prove the necessary new technology but not to build Aany commercial-scale plants incorporating it are therefore needed today. World Aoil supplies will be barely adequate to give us time for the difficult and Aexpensive process of creating a new industry, even at full steam ahead. David AC. White. Director, MTT. Energy Laboratory. Energy choices for the 1980s Technology Review. August/ September 1980. p. 34. It is time to stop quibbling about when atmospheric carbon dioxide will double and how much the temperature will rise. Instead, the United States should take advantage of options to reduce carbon-dioxide emissions and energy costs, and comit should embark on the decades-long program needed to develop and mercialize other carbon-reduced and carbon-free energy technologies. We will have to do it eventually, we will be able to do it cost-effectively, and Awe ought to begin now with a balanced, rational, and sustained program. David C. White, Clinton J. Andrews, and Nancy W. Stauffer. The new team: electricity sources without carbon dioxide Technology Review, January 1992. p. 49. Many in the renewable-energy business have been greatly heartened by recent developments, including new reports of looming petroleum scarcity which suggest rising prices for this competing fuel. Additionally, the combination of Aheightened concern about rising dependence on Middle East oil and fears of Aglobal warming imply that consumers may be placing significant security and Aenvironmental premiums on petroleum, especially compared to renewables. Thus, it Aseems as if the viability of renewable energies will improve, regardless of Atheir actions [1,2]. But as the above quotes show, the world has heard all this before. Virtually Aidentical arguments were used in the late 1970s to convince governments and the Apetroleum industry that large-scale development of shale oil was needed, and Aneeded quickly, and that "soft energies" were necessary, indeed, unavoidable A[3]. Even the oil industry became convinced of this, with the CEO of one Amultinational arguing: The oil business has come to maturity, and with maturity comes a new set of challenges for its managers....We recognize that staying in energy in the Afuture will mean investing increasing amounts not only in petroleum but in Aalternate energy sources, such as coal and uranium. It also means research into the whole spectrum of synfuels. and into solar energy. Realistically, oil companies have no other choice. They must diversify or, in the long term, go the way of the buggy-whip makers. Petroleum faces transition period by Rawleigh Warner, Jr., in Oil and Gas Journal 8/77. pp. 66,67. (Mobil CEO). Most of the money invested in shale oil was lost, as was a significant amount Aof that put into other, softer energies, including most of the oil industryʹs Ainvestment in photovoltaics [4]. We could be on the verge of repeating this type of error. First, renewables producers might seek to invest in products which are not economically viable Aexpecting that the aforementioned developments will improve the market Aenvironment, without regard for changes in the economics of their product. But Aalso, some are calling for the government to accept that markets are not Arecognizing these developments, and therefore should intervene by mandating Apurchases of these products or by subsidizing them. But past misinterpretations are insufficient reasons to avoid new investments. AThe American humorist Mark Twain once remarked that a cat which had jumped on a hot stove would never jump on a hot stove again, but neither would it jump on a cold stove. The purpose of this paper is to separate the temperature from the Aappliance, to understand which factors will help determine future viability of Aalternative energies and which are repetition of previous mistakes. To that Aend, AI will discuss some of these expectations and suggest that renewable-Aenergy producers should not make excessively optimistic predictions about oil Aprices or premia, and should focus on making their products commercially Aviable under existing conditions.