On a bayesian estimation procedure for determining the average ore grade of a uranium deposit

A Bayesian procedure is applied to estimate the average ore grade of a specific uranium deposit (the Morrison formation in New Mexico). Experimental data taken from drilling tests for this formation constitute deposit specific information, E2. This information is combined, through a single stage application of Bayesʹ theorem, with the more extensive and well established information on all similar formations in the region, E1. It is assumed that the best estimate for the deposit specific case should include the relevant experimental evidence collected from other like formations giving incomplete information on the specific deposit. This follows traditional methods for resource estimation, which presume that previous collective experience obtained from similar formations in the geological region can be used to infer the geologic characteristics of a less well characterized formation.