Possible effects of the hurricane Gudrun on the regional Swedish forest energy supply

This paper presents a snapshot speculative analysis of some possible effects of the massive windthrow in south Sweden on January 8–9, 2005. Hurricane Gudrun damaged buildings and blocked roads, making large areas inaccessible except by helicopter. Electricity and telecommunications were shambolic. Around 70 million cubic metres were windthrown, equalling a ‘normal’ Swedish annual felling––a gross value exceeding €20,000,000,000. The paper presents the subsequent restoration work that has placed a special focus on the forest sector. In south Sweden, logging work will last for a couple of years. The roundwood market will be severely strained. For individual forest owners, the economic effects of the storm are often disastrous. To ensure that forest owners will retrieve at least part of the pre-storm forest value, restoration aims at the salvaging of maximum value. Sawmills try to store the most valuable timber for years to come, decreasing the risk of painful capacity adjustments and protecting export opportunities. Forest fuel value is low compared to sawlogs and pulpwood. Thus, the forest energy sector has received little attention. Forest chippers normally contribute important marginal quantities of wood fuels, but since no logging residues will be harvested from the windthrown forests for a period of 2–3 years, they are put out of business and may disappear from the market. Heating and power plants will receive an abundance of industrial by-products in the coming 2–3 years, followed by a period of expected shortage of woody biomass for energy production. With few forest chippers left, the situation will be troublesome.