Judgmental risk analysis process development in construction projects

Various risks and uncertainties exist in construction projects. These may not only prevent the projects to be completed within budget and time limit, but also threaten the quality, safety and operational needs. In this context, risk analysis processes are the systematic methods to analyze the potential project risks and develop risk response strategies in order to cope with risks and achieve the desired objectives. This study proposes a new schedule risk analysis method named as judgmental risk analysis process (JRAP) and offers a different project duration equation through JRAP. The process (JRAP) can be defined as a pessimistic risk analysis methodology or a hypothesis based on Monte Carlo simulation that is effective in uncertain conditions due to its capability of converting uncertainty to risk judgmentally in construction projects. A case study has also been developed to show how the proposed process is applied on a construction project and to prove its validity.