2. Economic assumptions underlying asian energy markets

It is an extremely difficult task to project Asia-Pacific energy trends to 2010 with any degree of certainty, partly because the region is a complex mix of developed, developing, and newly industrialized economies and has the worldʹs fastest economic growth. In addition, because of the regionʹs large and ever increasing dependence on imported crude oil, numerous external factors must be integrated into the analysis, including world oil prices and supply in particular. Similarly, the issue of coal and gas substitution is a vital but uncertain factor, because of the great difficulties involved in projecting energy developments in China and the countries of the former Soviet Union or the impact of such developments on the region. The countries of the former Soviet Union are not included in the regional data presented in this article and are discussed separately in article 4.