Automatic diagnostics and prognostics of energy conversion processes via knowledge-based systems

This paper presents a critical and analytical description of an ongoing research program aimed at the implementation of an expert system capable of monitoring, through an Intelligent Health Control procedure, the instantaneous performance of a cogeneration plant. An application has been tested on a real plant, located on the grounds of the ENEA-Casaccia Energy Laboratories. The expert system, denominated PROMISE as the Italian acronym for PROgnostic and Intelligent Monitoring Expert System, generates, in real time and in a form directly useful to the plant manager, information on the existence and severity of faults, forecasts on the future time history of both detected and likely faults, and suggestions on how to control the problem.