Load prediction method for heat and electricity demand in buildings for the purpose of planning for mixed energy distribution systems

Energy planning for mixed energy distribution systems is important to increase the flexibility in the regional and national energy systems. Expected maximum loads, load profiles and yearly energy demands, all divided into heat and electricity purposes, are important input parameters to plan for the most economical, technical and environmental optimal energy distribution system for a planning area. First, this article presents a load prediction method which estimates heat and electricity load profiles for various building categories. The method is based on statistical analyses of hourly simultaneous measured district heat and electricity consumption in several buildings, as well as background information of the measured buildings. The heat load model is based on regression analyses, whereas the electricity load model is based on various statistical distributions. Second, a method for load aggregation based on the building categories’ load profiles is presented to estimate the maximum load demands, yearly load profiles, load duration profiles and yearly energy demands, all divided into heat and electricity purposes, for a planning area.