Comparison between detailed model simulation and artificial neural network for forecasting building energy consumption

There are several ways to attempt to model a building and its heat gains from external sources as well as internal ones in order to evaluate a proper operation, audit retrofit actions, and forecast energy consumption. Different techniques, varying from simple regression to models that are based on physical principles, can be used for simulation. A frequent hypothesis for all these models is that the input variables should be based on realistic data when they are available, otherwise the evaluation of energy consumption might be highly under or over estimated. In this paper, a comparison is made between a simple model based on artificial neural network (ANN) and a model that is based on physical principles (EnergyPlus) as an auditing and predicting tool in order to forecast building energy consumption. The Administration Building of the University of São Paulo is used as a case study. The building energy consumption profiles are collected as well as the campus meteorological data. Results show that both models are suitable for energy consumption forecast. Additionally, a parametric analysis is carried out for the considered building on EnergyPlus in order to evaluate the influence of several parameters such as the building profile occupation and weather data on such forecasting.