Metropolitan-scale Transport and Dispersion from the New York World Trade Center Following September 11, 2001. Part I: An Evaluation of the CALMET Meteorological Model

Following the collapse of the New York City World Trade Center towers on September 11, 2001, Local, State and Federal agencies initiated numerous air monitoring activities to better understand the impact of emissions from the disaster. A study of the estimated pathway that a potential plume of emissions would likely track was completed to support the U.S. EPA’s initial exposure assessments. The plume from the World Trade Center was estimated using the CALMET-CALPUFF dispersion modeling system. The following is the first of two reports that compares several meteorological models, including the CALMET diagnostic model, the Advanced Regional Prediction System (ARPS) and 5th Generation Mesoscale Model (MM5) in the complex marine-influenced urban setting of NYC. Results indicate wind speed, in most cases, is greater in CALMET than the two mesoscale models because the CALMET micrometeorological processor does not properly adjust the wind field for surface roughness variations that exits in a major built-up urban area. Small-scale circulations, which were resolved by the mesoscale models, were not well simulated by CALMET. Independent wind observations in Lower Manhattan suggest that the wind direction estimates of CALMET possess a high degree of error because of the urban influence. Wind speed is on average 1.5 ms)1 stronger in CALMET than what observations indicate. The wind direction downwind of the city is rotated 25–34 clockwise in CALMET, relative to what observations indicate.