Prevalence of specific variant carotid geometric patterns and incidence of cardiovascular events in older persons: The cardiovascular health study (CHS E-131) Original Research Article

Objectives We hypothesized that variant geometric patterns of the common carotid artery (CCA) predict the incidence of cardiovascular disease (CVD), after accounting for CCA intima-medial thickness (IMT). Background Common carotid artery intima-media thickness has been associated with the incidence of cardiovascular disease. Methods Noninvasive measurements of IMT were made with high-resolution ultrasonography in 5,640 subjects 65 years of age or older participating in the Cardiovascular Health Study. New coronary and/or cerebrovascular events served as outcome variables over a median 10.2-year follow-up. To characterize different carotid structural geometric patterns (CGP), vascular mass (VM) was combined with the wall-to-lumen ratio (W/L). Normal values for W/L and VM were defined as age-adjusted, gender-specific 75th percentiles of the 1,899 normotensive subjects free of CVD at baseline. Four CGPs were defined: CGP1 = normal W/L ratio and VM; CGP2 = arterial remodeling (i.e., increased W/L ratio with normal VM); CGP3 = arterial hypertrophy (i.e., increased W/L ratio with increased VM); and CGP4 = arterial hypertrophy with dilation (i.e., normal W/L ratio and increased VM). Results Coronary or cerebrovascular events (adjusted for age, gender, traditional risk factors, and IMT) were associated with CGP in subjects free of CVD at baseline. Specifically, the hazard ratio (Cox proportional-hazards analyses) for CGP3 (arterial hypertrophy) was 1.25 (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.03 to 1.53), and for CGP4 (arterial hypertrophy with dilation) was 1.43 (95% CI 1.16 to 1.75) compared with CGP1 (normal). Conclusions Arterial hypertrophy defined by variant CGP patterns is associated with the development of new CVD, independent of age, traditional risk factors, and CCA IMT.