The Effect of Age on Risk Factors for Ischemic Heart Disease: The Manitoba Follow-Up Study, 1948–1993

PURPOSE: The purpose of this paper is to determine the age-specific relationships between risk factors at age 40 through 75 years and ischemic heart disease (IHD), and to determine the effects of aging on these relationships in a cohort of 3983 Canadian males. METHODS: The Manitoba Follow-Up Study is the prospective investigation of cardiovascular disease as it develops in a cohort of 3983 young men. Over a period of 45 years, from 1948 to 1993, 1094 study members (27%) developed clinical evidence of IHD. Blood pressure, body weight, smoking, and presence of diabetes mellitus have been recorded at regular intervals throughout the follow-up period. Using measurements from examinations every 5 years between ages 40 and 75 years, age-specific Cox proportional hazard models were fit to relate these risk factors to IHD. RESULTS: The adjusted relative risk of IHD for systolic blood pressure, diastolic blood pressure and smoking were found to significantly (p < 0.001) decline with advancing age. The adjusted relative risk for body mass index and presence of diabetes mellitus for ischemic heart disease did not vary with age (p > 0.05). After age 65 years, these risk factors were of little value for the prediction of IHD. CONCLUSIONS: The relative risk and statistical significance of blood pressure and smoking, as risk factors for IHD, decline with age.