RNA viruses as complex adaptive systems

RNA viruses have high mutation rates and so their populations exist as dynamic and complex mutant distributions. It has been consistently observed that when challenged with a new environment, viral populations adapt following hyperbolic-like kinetics: adaptation is initially very rapid, but then slows down as fitness reaches an asymptotic value. These adaptive dynamics have been explained in terms of populations moving towards the top of peaks on rugged fitness landscapes. Fitness fluctuations of varying magnitude are observed during adaptation. Often the presence of fluctuations in the evolution of physical systems indicates some form of self-organization, or where many components of the system are simultaneously involved. Here we analyze data from several in vitro evolution experiments carried out with vesicular stomatitis virus (VSV) looking for the signature of criticality and scaling. Long-range fitness correlations have been detected during the adaptive process. We also found that the magnitude of fitness fluctuations, far from being trivial, conform to a Weibull probability distribution function, suggesting that viral adaptation belongs to a broad category of phenomena previously documented in other fields and related with emergence.