EDUCATIONAL SECTION: Risk analysis in surgical oncology—Part I: concepts and tools

«The fear of harm ought to be proportional not merely to the gravity of the harm, but also to the probability of the event» - Logic 1662 Paris.All clinical procedures invoke risk. Many interventions in cancer management carry a particularly high element of risk, expressed through morbidity and premature death. Formal risk analysis is a discipline which is fundamental to engineering, to finance, to the airline industry and many other sectors of public life. Clinical risk analysis involves risk prediction, risk management and risk avoidance. Risk analysis is rarely invoked or taught in the clinical sciences, and management appraisals on individual patients almost never include a formal estimate of risk. Clinical decisions tend to be guided by qualitative judgements, and by the personality interactions of patients and clinicians. A formal evaluation of risk on a case by case and procedural basis might reduce morbidity and cost in surgical oncology practice. This article introduces the concepts, the spectrum and history of risk analysis and the tools for risk prediction.