Crustal strain observation for nine years with a laser strainmeter in Kobe, Japan

We carried out precise crustal strain observation using a laser strainmeter system at the RokkoTakao station in Kobe, Japan from 1989 to 1997. The long-term strain record is characterized by remarkable annual changes of the order of 2–3×10-6 and linear strain accumulation of -4.4×107/year (in contraction). The annual strain changes are inversely proportional to temperature changes that precede the strain changes by about 1 month. The apparent annual strain changes were mainly caused by refractive-index changes in the light path due to the ambient temperature changes. After eliminating the annual temperature effect, linear strain accumulation is corrected to be -6.3~-6.7× 10-7/year. Residual strains show the oscillating behavior, in which the oscillating cycle seems to become shorter and shorter as time goes by. During the period, a destructive earthquake of M=7.2 occurred near the Kobe City on 17 January 1995. We investigated the oscillating behavior in secular variations of ground-strains by introducing the deterministic approach of earthquake prediction to search for the "critical point" of the occurrence of an earthquake in the extended power law equation. However, we could not obtain a unique solution to determine eight unknown parameters including the "critical point". This may be mainly due to lack of data for 4 months from August to November in 1994 by the failure of the laser source before the occurrence of earthquake on 17 January 1995. After removing environmental effects and tidal components, we carefully re-examined strain changes in 7 days and 1 day before the occurrence of the earthquake, but we could not detect anomalous strain changes exceeding 1×10-8 before the earthquake.