Predicting recidivism in juvenile delinquents: the role of mental health diagnoses and the qualification of conclusions by race

Seventy-five male youths were evaluated while incarcerated in a juvenile facility in the state of Georgia. Twenty-one to 32 months following discharge, criminal files were examined for records of reincarceration. The recidivism rate was approximately one-third of the initial sample. Crime-related and mental health variables were entered into discriminant function analyses to determine models for predicting recidivism. For the total sample, earlier age at first arrest and higher severity of crime significantly discriminated recidivists from nonrecidivists. Presence of a substance abuse disorder appeared to be a positive prognostic indicator for nonrecidivism. Subsequently, separate sets of analyses were conducted by race, showing clearly that the results were qualified by race, and that differential processes may be operating for African-American vs Caucasian youth when considering recidivism.