System Dynamics Modeling of Reservoir Operations for Flood Management

There exists a strong need to explore simulation techniques that not only represent complex dynamic systems in a realistic way but also allow the involvement of end users in model development to increase their confidence in the modeling process. System dynamics, a feedback-based object-oriented simulation approach, is presented for modeling reservoir operations. The increased speed of model development, the trust developed in the model due to user participation, the possibility of group model development, and the effective communication of model results are main strengths of this approach. The ease of model modification in response to changes in the system and the ability to perform sensitivity analysis make this approach more attractive compared with systems analysis techniques for modeling reservoir operations. The proposed approach is applied to the Shellmouth reservoir on the Assiniboine River in Canada. Operating rules are developed for high flow/flood years to minimize flooding. Alternative operating rules are explored by changing reservoir storage allocation and reservoir outflows. Impacts on the flood management capacity of the reservoir are investigated by simulating a gated spillway in addition to an existing unregulated spillway. Sensitivity analysis is performed on the reservoir levels at the start of the flood season and the outflow from the reservoir.