Application of Diffusion Processes to Runoff Estimation

In order to forecast drainage basin runoff, mathematical models involving diffusion processes are tested against hydrological data obtained from the hydrographic basin of the Saguenay-Lac-St-Jean, located in northeastern Quebec. For one-dayahead estimates, a bidimensional model using an Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process is seen to give better results than a deterministic model presently in use. The latter model involves the estimation of 18 parameters, while the diffusion process model requires only one parameter, thus making it much simpler and cheaper to implement.