The risk epidemic in medical journals

Searches in MEDLINE databases show a rapid increase in the number of articles with the term ‘risk(s)’ in the title and/or abstract in the period from 1967 to 1991. This trend is found in medical journals giving a general coverage of medicine and journals covering obstetrics and gynaecology in U.S.A., Britain and Scandinavia. The most rapid increase is, however, found in epidemiological journals. Comparisons of the developments in the occurrence of such terms as risk, hazard, danger and uncertainty show that the increasing frequency of the term risk in the medical literature can not be explained as a change in terminology alone. It is hypothesized that the ongoing trend, which resembles an epidemic, is a result of developments in science and technology, that has changed our beliefs about the locus of control from factors outside human control to factors inside our control. The origins of the epidemic may be traced to the development of such disciplines as probability statistics, increased focus on risk management and health promotion, with recent developments in computer technology as the factor responsible for the escalation seen in the past decade. With the cultural selection of risks in mind, the social construction of risk is discussed. Potentially harmful effects of such an epidemic are discussed, exemplified through controversies over current epidemiological risk construction and strategies for coronary risk reduction. It is finally argued that the risk epidemic reflects the social constructions of a particular culture at a particular time in history.