Nonlinear Soil-Site Effects in Probabilistic Seismic-Hazard Analysis

This study presents effective probabilistic procedures for evaluating ground-motion hazard at the free-field surface of a nonlinear soil deposit located at a specific site. Ground motion at the surface, or at any depth of interest within the soil formation (e.g., at the structure foundation level), is defined here in terms either of a suite of oscillator-frequency-dependent hazard curves for spectral acceleration, S(s,a)(f), or of one or more spectral acceleration uniform-hazard spectra, each associated with a given mean return period. It is presumed that similar information is available for the rock-outcrop input. The effects of uncertainty in soil properties are directly included. This methodology incorporates the amplification of the local soil deposit into the framework of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA). The soil amplification is characterized by a frequency-dependent amplification function, AF(f), where f is a generic oscillator frequency. AF(f) is defined as the ratio of S(s,a)(f) to the spectral acceleration at the bedrock level, S(s,a)(f). The estimates of the statistics of the amplification function are obtained by a limited number of nonlinear dynamic analyses of the soil column with uncertain properties, as discussed in a companion article in this issue (Bazzurro and Cornell, 2004). The hazard at the soil surface (or at any desired depth) is computed by convolving the site-specific hazard curve at the bedrock level with the probability distribution of the amplification function.