Abstract :
The September 2006 military coup against the Thaksin government in Thailand
has had a profound impact on Thai politics. It has arrested the process of democratic
consolidation that was set in motion in the country in the 1990s. Although many of
Thaksin’s policies lacked the spirit of democratic governance, he was democratically
elected and was ousted frompower unconstitutionally. The entire tenure of Thaksin has
brought to the fore two deep cleavages in Thailand. The first of these is the deep divide
between the rural and urban electoral constituencies. The former provided amajor vote
bank with little bearing on the dispersion of power and resources that was effectively
dominated by the latter. Thaksin and his populist policies effectively undermined the
urban electorate and strengthened the rural constituency. The second and perhaps
structurally more significant tension is that which has developed between the new
business elite and the old establishment elite that comprise the monarchy,military, and
the bureaucracy. This old elite has been at the forefront of displacing Thaksin through its
fear of loss of control over the domestic political process. The drawn out confrontation
that has spawned two social movements has significantly raised the country’s political
temperature and there is the real potential for the situation to deteriorate into violence.
Despite these changes, a number of continuities unique to the Thai political situation
continue to obtain as well.
