Some Statistical Methods for Prediction of Athletic Records

Prediction of the sports records has received a great deal of attention from researchers in different disciplines. This article reviews some of the methods developed by statisticians and offers few improvements. Specific methods discussed include trend analysis, tail modeling, and methods based on certain results of the theory of records for independent and identically distributed attempts. To make the latter theory applicable, and to account for factors affecting the records, adjustments are made to the data in the form of increase in participation or attempts. Models utilized for this purpose include geometric increase, logistic increase, and increase as a non-homogenous Poisson process. A method for prediction of ultimate record is also included together with demonstrating examples using data for men’s long jump and 400 meter run.