Estimation of Growth Rates and Analysis of its Components in the Gezira Scheme

The study was conducted to estimate the growth rate of area, productivity, and production and measure the contribution of different components to the growth rate of the main crops grown in the Gezira scheme. The study used secondary data covering the period before the adoption of the liberalization policy (1970/71 to 1991/92) and the period after the adoption of the liberalization policy (1992/93 to 2007/08). The crops concerned in the study were sorghum, wheat, cotton and groundnuts. The study estimated the growth rate in area, productivity, and production before and after the adoption of the liberalization policy for the four crops. Further, the study conducted a decomposition analysis to determine the contribution of different components to the growth rate. The results of the study showed that there were variations in growth rates of area and productivity for the crops during the two periods. The growth rate was positive and increasing during the two periods for sorghum, positive and decreasing for cotton and negative and decreasing for groundnuts. The decomposition analysis revealed that the main components contributing to growth rate were area, productivity and cropping pattern. Programs designed to remove the constraints facing the agricultural production in the Gezira scheme can play a substantial role in achieving high growth rate of agricultural production. Such programs and policies include rehabilitation of irrigation system, strengthening agricultural research and extension, reduction of agricultural taxes and formulation of pricing and marketing policies conducive to agricultural production.