Ten percent organic within 15 years: Policyand program initiatives to advance organicfood and farming in Ontario, Canada

With growth in retail sales estimated by industry at 15–25% yr-1, organic food represents the only significant growth sectorin Canada’s food system. This reality, in combination with mounting evidence that substantial environmental and economicbenefits can arise from organic farming adoption, suggests that organic sector development should be a priority forgovernments. However, organic food remains a marginal component of Canadian agricultural and trade policy. This studywas designed to examine the opportunities and costs to the province of Ontario of strategic investment in the expansion ofthe organic sector. Drawing on existing literature and Ontario land use and production data, the study used an iterativeprocess to identify how the province could reach a target of 10% of Ontario’s cropped acres in organic production within15 years, from the current level of about 1%. We concluded that after 15 years 5343 organic farmers would be producingorganically in all major commodities, including 4254 converting farmers entering the organic sector and 600 new entrants tofarming. The 489 organic farms reported in 2004 would be included in this total of 5343 because we assume that they allmake modest additions over this time period to their existing operations. Organic production would occur on about367,000 ha of land, and some 1.4 million animals would be reared organically. After 15 years, these farmers would reducefertilizer applications by about 43 million kg (saving $18.4 million yr-1), pesticide applications by about 296,000 kg activeingredient (saving $9.1 million yr-1), and 7079 kg of growth-promoting antibiotics/medications consumed in animal feed.This 30-point program would require new investments by the provincial government of about $51 million over 15 years.Phase I (first 5 years) costs would total $7.1 million and Phase II (following 10 years) costs $43.9 million. Net program costswould be significantly lower since farmers would have directly saved on inputs and received premium organic prices formost of their goods sold, thereby reducing government costs related to supporting farm finances. Additionally, this programwould contribute significantly to reducing the externalized costs of current approaches to agriculture, conservativelyestimated at $145 million annually or $2.18 billion over the 15-year life of the program. Not all those costs would be savedwithin 15 years, but this exceedingly modest investment in organic production, representing only 2.3% of these externalizedcosts, would generate savings in externalized costs far beyond this one-time investment. Implementation of this plan wouldallow domestic producers to capture 51% of Ontario’s organic consumption, up from the currently low-range estimate of15%. Organic foods would represent 1.9% of the total food retail market after 5 years and 5.3% of the total market after15 years