CONTEXT SCENARIOS IN LONG-TERM DEFENSE PLANNING

Recently, a team of Bulgarian analysts proposed a novel long-termplanning methodology that envisions a scenario-based, concept-driven, and capabilities-oriented planning process intended to provide for robustness in an uncertainsecurity and force development environment. The methodology uses two types ofscenarios – context scenarios (or “alternative futures”) and situational scenariosThis article presents a process for designing context scenarios and a summary informationon the scenarios developed for use in Bulgaria’s long-term planningprocess. The proposed approach to the development of context scenarios involvesfive distinct steps – preparation, strategic base analysis, analysis of the characteristicsof the future, definition of national security interests’ zones, and developmentand analysis of context scenarios. A specialized software tool called IntelligentScenario Computer Interface Program Morphological Analysis/ System Analysis (ISCIP-MA-SA) was developed to support both the morphological and system analyseswithin the process