BULGARIA’S DEFENCE POLICY AND FORCE SIZE FROM A COMPARATIVE MACRO PERSPECTIVE

The paper presents a novel, theoretically sound approach to the analysisof defence policy and force models and first results of its implementation. The approachis based on comparison of defence policies and cost data under the hypothesisthat a particular defence policy relates to a specific set of defence capabilitieswith the respective impact on cost. We identified six factors, or dimensions, of defencepolicy with major impact on the cost of the respective capabilities, and usedpublicly available data to construct a model of capability cost, expressed in defencebudget per active duty military personnel in constant purchasing power parity dollars, as a function of the six factors. Then the model was used to define what mightbe the reasonable force size of the Bulgarian Armed Forces in 2015 under threeplausible alternative defence policies. The final section of the paper outlinesstrengths and limitations of the approach, as well as outputs and potential outcomesfrom its implementation