Modeling and forecasting tourist traffic in the Maua and Alba Posse Harbors

The regional integration between bordering countries possesses fundamental obstacles for peopleʹs locomotion, for example, physical access (bridges and highways are required) and authorizations of custom house officers. The obstacles imposed on individuals who intend to cross Uruguay River, in the border of Brazil and Argentina, limit the tourist flow. This research permits, through an analysis of time series in a number of observations, the development of a demonstrative equation of the reality of peopleʹs crossing in harbors. So, it is a way to allow feasible forecasts to be used in plans of economic viability to supply a necessary infrastructure to these harbors (such as bridges and highways). It was observed that after the opening of the harbors during the weekends, there was a considerable increase in the number of people crossing it, which was confirmed by the average data reported before and after the opening season. The best model found was SARIMA (3,0,1)(2,1,1).