An exploratory approach to modeling explosive compound persistence and flux using dissolution kinetics

Recent advances in the description of aqueous dissolution rates for explosive compounds enhance the ability to describe these compounds as a contaminant source term and to model the behavior of these compounds in a field environment. The objective of this study is to make predictions concerning the persistence of 2,4,6-trinitrotoluene (TNT) and octahydro-1,3,5,7-tetranitro-1,3,5,7-tetrazocine (HMX) in solid form both as individual explosive compounds and components of octol, and the resultant concentrations of explosives in water as a result of dissolution using three exploratory modeling approaches. The selection of dissolution model and rate greatly affect not only the predicted persistence of explosive compound sources but also their resulting concentrations in solution. This study identifies the wide range in possible predictions using existing information and these modeling approaches to highlight the need for further research to ensure that risk assessment, remediation and predicted fate and transport are appropriately presented and interpreted.