Abstract :
Four important arguments for probabilism—the Dutch Book, representation theorem,
calibration, and gradational accuracy arguments—have a strikingly similar structure.
Each begins with a mathematical theorem, a conditional with an existentially quantified
consequent, of the general form:
if your credences are not probabilities, then there is a way in which your
rationality is impugned.
Each argument concludes that rationality requires your credences to be probabilities.
I contend that each argument is invalid as formulated. In each case there is a mirror-image
theorem and a corresponding argument of exactly equal strength that concludes that
rationality requires your credences not to be probabilities. Some further consideration
is needed to break this symmetry in favour of probabilism. I discuss the extent to which
the original arguments can be buttressed.