Quantifying the uncertainty about the fit of a new Keynesian pricing model$

Recent studies by Gali and Gertler [1999. Inflation dynamics: a structural econometric analysis, Journal of Monetary Economics 44, 195–222] and Sbordone [2002. Prices and unit labor costs: testing models of pricing, Journal of Monetary Economics 49, 265–292] conclude that a theoretical inflation series implied by a forward-looking New Keynesian pricing equation fits post-1960 U.S. inflation closely. Their theoretical inflation series is conditional on (i) a reduced-form forecasting process for real marginal cost; and (ii) the calibration of the pricing equation. The present paper shows that both of these determinants are surrounded by considerable uncertainty. When quantifying the impact of this uncertainty on theoretical inflation, we can no longer say whether the forward-looking pricing equation explains observed inflation dynamics very well or very poorly.