Non-performing loans, prospective bailouts, and Japanʹs slowdown

The delay in the government bailout of the financial sector played a key role in Japanʹs slowdown during the 1990s and early 2000s. This argument is articulated in a general equilibrium model in which the government provides deposit insurance to the financial sector. The existence of non-performing loans, combined with a delay in the bailout, leads to a persistent decline in economic activity. Consistent with Japanʹs experience, the decline in output is caused not only by a fall in investment, but also by a decline in labor and total factor productivity.