Perception and Politics in Intelligence Assessment: U.S. Estimates of the Soviet and “Rogue-State” Nuclear Threats

United States estimates of Soviet nuclear goals and capabilities and the current ‘‘rogue-state’’ nuclear threat reflected prevailing beliefs about threat within the U.S. government and the relative influence of agencies charged with threat assessment. This article establishes that the patterns in formal Soviet threat assessment: (i) did not reflect a uniform response to ‘‘external threat,’’ (ii) were inevitably tied to underlying assumptions about adversary intent, and (iii) were susceptible then to perceptual, organizational, and ⁄ or political influences within government. Thus, threat assessments reflected the optimism and pessimism— and political interests and ideologies—of those who participated in the estimating process. The article concludes by examining these lessons in light of the experiences and challenges of assessing threat from small states harboring nuclear ambitions.