Land expectation values for spruce and beech calculated with Monte Carlo modelling techniques

This study presents a model for including natural risks (such as storm or insects) in the calculation of land expectation values. Applying this model, an answer has been found to the question as to whether consideration of risk would lead to changing recommendations regarding the choice of species and the length of rotation periods from the point of view of profitability. The study is based on well-founded, empirical growth data and survival probabilities for a specific region in southern Germany. It shows that spruce is the more profitable species, even if its survival probability is noticeably lower than that of beech, especially when the trees are older. When survival probabilities are considered, the economic superiority of spruce is not affected, but their optimum rotation period is reduced from 90 to 80 years.