Modeling timber mill procurement influence effects on interstate sawlog exportation

Over the last three decades the exportation rate of raw sawlogs from Illinois to neighboring states for processing has nearly doubled. While the exportation of sawlogs has adverse impacts on the Illinois wood products manufacturing sector and local forest landowners, little research has been conducted to understand how the spatial arrangement of timber mills affects sawlog exportation. This research models, in a spatial environment, timber mill procurement influence within southern Illinois and the surrounding region in an attempt to understand how the location of mills is a partial explanation of the increase in sawlog exportation. Assuming equal market power, timber mills within the study area were found to be arranged in a manner that results in low competition for sawlogs within Illinois and high competition in neighboring states. Spatial models incorporating differential market power based on mill size characteristics suggest that Illinois experiences little procurement pressure from high production mills operating within the State but is under procurement pressure from high production timber mills operating in neighboring states.