Predicting Gran alkalinity and calcium concentrations in river waters over a national scale using a novel modification to the G-BASH model

Monthly stream water calcium and Gran alkalinity concentration data from 11 sub-catchments of the Nether Beck in the English Lake District have been used to appraise the transferability of the Scottish, River Dee-based G-BASH model. Readily available riparian zone geochemistry and flow paths were used initially to predict minimum and mean stream water concentrations at the Nether Beck, based on calibration equations from the River Dee catchment data. Predicted values significantly exceeded observed values. Differences in runoff between the two areas, leading to a dilution effect in the Nether Beck, explained most of the difference between observed and predicted values. Greater acid deposition in the Lake District also reduced stream water Gran alkalinity concentrations in that area. If regional differences in precipitation, evapotranspiration and pollutant deposition are incorporated into the model, it may then be used reliably to predict catchment susceptibility to acidification over a wide regional (national) scale.