A PAH fate model for San Francisco Bay

A mass balance model was applied to simulate the long-term fate of PAHs in San Francisco Bay. The model treats the Bay as a single box with interacting water and sediment compartments, and includes loading, volatilization, outflow to the ocean, degradation, and burial in deep sediment. The estimated time required for loss of one-half of the mass in the Bay in the absence of loading ranged from 20 d for naphthalene to 5 yr for benzo(b)fluoranthene. Uncertainty analysis using Monte Carlo simulation indicated a high degree of influence and uncertainty for degradation rates, suggesting that improved estimates of degradation would significantly improve the predictive ability of the model. A comparison of model calculations to literature values suggested that external PAH loading to San Francisco Bay was at or above previous estimates of 3600 kg yr−1, and that degradation in the Bay was within the range of commonly published estimates for high molecular weight PAHs (4.0 × 10−5 to 4.0 × 10−4 d−1).