Calculation of the climate dynamics characteristics in the coastal sea zone by the methods of hydrodynamic and probabilistic modelling

For successful approach to economical problems related to natural resources operation in the shelf and coastal sea zones it is necessary to have various characteristics of current regime state and its possible changes. Their variability results from sophisticated hydrodynamic processes and their interaction in natural conditions. An estimation of the extreme sea characteristics and ones with return period of 25, 50 and 100 years for the regions with lack of observations becomes of great importance now. It becomes possible on the basis of joint methods which include computer generation of ecological characteristics using observation data available and thermodynamic and probabilistic models. Methods of evaluation of sea regime main elements (wind, waves, currents, sea level) including characteristics with long return periods for coastal zone and offshore regions have been developed in the State Oceanographic Institute. They consist of the hydrodynamic models and estimation methods of the above-mentioned hydrometeorological elements in meso-scale and synoptical variability ranges, and also of probabilistic models of hydrometeorological phenomena, including rare events.