Nutrient biogeochemical cycles in the Gulf of Riga: scaling up field studies with a mathematical model

A box model has been implemented to understand the large-scale biogeochemical cycles of nitrogen, phosphorus, and silicon in the Gulf of Riga. The large data sets collected within the international Gulf of Riga Project in 1993/1995 were used to validate the model. The comparison to data was useful in scaling up to the gulf-wide level and scrutinizing the conclusions based on short-term field surveys and experimental studies. The simulations indicate that the limiting role was passing from silicon to phosphorus to nitrogen over the seasons of organic production. However, on an annual scale, nutrient limitation was close to the “Redfield equilibrium”. Mass balance considerations, based on modeled coupled fluxes, disagree with the conclusions on low sediment denitrification and high phosphorus retention in the pelagic system, which were derived from isolated measurements. Nutrient budgets constructed with the model revealed the high buffer capacity of the Gulf of Riga. The nutrient residence times span a range from 6 years for N to 70 years for Si. The buffering arises from intensive internal recycling in the water body and by the bottom sediments. The budgets indicate that the Gulf retains about two-thirds of external nitrogen and silicon inputs, while phosphorus retention is only 10%. A slow response to external perturbations is demonstrated with numerical experiments run for 15 years under 50% reductions of terrestrial nutrient inputs. These experiments imply that the most effective is the N+P reduction scenario, which resulted in a 20% decrease of primary production after 12 years. A reduction of P resulted in only a 6% decrease of primary production; however, it yielded an 80% drop in the amount of nitrogen fixation.