The cause of Barents Sea biomass dynamics

The fluctuations of the biomasses in the Barents Sea have been poorly understood and caused problems in biomass management. Better long-term forecasting is thus crucial for an economical and sustainable utilization of the biomass. The present paper presents a wavelet analysis of the Kola temperature series and the biomass time series of Barents Sea Shrimp (Pandalus borealis), Barents Sea capelin (Mallotus villosus), Norwegian spring spawning herring (Clupea harengus), Northeast Arctic cod (Gadus morhua), and Northeast Arctic haddock (Melanogrammus aeglefinus). The wavelet shows a close relation between the 18.6-year lunar nodal tide and dominant temperature cycles in the Kola temperature series. It also shows that all biomass time series are correlated to dominant cycles of 18.6/3=6.2, 18.6 and 3*18.6=55.8 years in the Kola section. This indicates that fluctuations of the temperature and the biomass in the Barents Sea are a deterministic process caused by the lunar nodal cycle. The close relation to the stationary 18.6-year lunar tide opens new possibilities for better forecasting and long-term management. The deterministic relation between biomass growth and the Kola cycles opens a possibility of more optimal management in short-term periods of 6 years, medium-term management of 18 years and long-term management of 55–75 years. The stationary biomass cycles can be represented by a simple phase-clock which indicates the current state of the biomass. This method represents a new possibility of long-term biomass forecasting.