Rates and drivers of rural residential development in the Greater Yellowstone

Many natural and semi-natural ecosystems are undergoing dramatic conversions resulting from rapid growth in rural home construction. Yet, rates and drivers of rural residential expansion into previously agricultural and natural landscapes have not been widely analyzed. Immigration and rural development have been exceptionally rapid in the private lands surrounding Yellowstone and Grand Teton National Parks, known as the Greater Yellowstone ecosystem (GYE). Because the GYE has unique ecological value, is still largely undeveloped, and is currently characterized by unrestrictive land use policies, there are prime opportunities for improving regional growth management via the incorporation of scientific knowledge into local land use planning decisions. We quantified rates of growth in rural home construction in the GYE and considered the extent to which biophysical and socio-economic factors explained variation in the spatial pattern of rural home development. We applied generalized linear models and use versus availability analyses to examine specific hypotheses regarding the potential drivers of rural residential development. From 1970 to 1999, the GYE experienced a 58% increase in population and a 350% increase in the area of rural lands supporting exurban housing densities. By 1999, one third of exurban developments were distributed in remote rural locations. Patterns of rural development within the GYE have been strongly influenced by agricultural suitability, transportation and services, natural amenities, past development patterns, and economic and recreational characteristics of nearby towns. The proportion of homes built on highly productive soils and lands proximate to water has remained consistently high throughout the 1900s. We suspect that newer homes continue to be built near water and productive soils because of the influence of early settlement patterns and transportation routes. Our data suggest that the more productive farmlands will likely continue to experience a disproportionate level of development pressure, as will the biologically diverse riparian habitats and the private lands bordering the national parks. This pattern of development has the potential to erode the quality of the lowland habitats most used by park wildlife. Although the possibility exists for continued land use intensification in the GYE, we emphasize the potential for local policy decisions to effectively manage growth in rural residential development.