Evaluating alternative economic growth rates and land use policies for Flathead County, Montana

Nine alternative futures are simulated for Flathead County, Montana for 2000–2014 and 2000–2024. Alternative futures incorporate high, moderate, and low growth rates, and baseline (current), moderately restrictive, and highly restrictive land use policies. Increases in employment are estimated using the IMPLAN regional economic model and translated into acreage requirements for commercial–institutional–industrial (CI&I) units and six types of housing units. Conversion of developable parcels to CI&I and housing units is based on a multiple-criteria score that measures the suitability of developable parcels for various developed uses. Additional jobs and housing units needed to support those jobs increase substantially, particularly for the moderate and high growth rates. Total acreage required for CI&I and housing units exceeds the acreage available for development for the baseline policy with the moderate and high growth rates, and for the moderately restrictive policy with high growth rates. There are no land shortages with any of the growth rates for the highly restrictive land use policy. Moderate and high growth can be sustained through 2024 in Flathead County by implementing a moderately restrictive land use policy if growth rates are moderate, and a highly restrictive land use policy if the growth rates are high.