Modelling the impact of BSE policy on agriculture in England and Wales

A dynamic model of United Kingdom (UK) milk and beef production and a linear programming model of land use in England and Wales were used to explore the likely impact on agriculture in England and Wales of measures to eliminate Bovine Spongiform Encephalopathy (BSE) in the UK. Three different scenarios were explored that reflecting uncertainties concerning the future demand for UK beef. Projections show marketed beef output up to 20% lower in 2000 compared to the 1995 level and an extensification of beef production in response to the BSE crisis. This extensification may have environmental benefits and mean that producers are better prepared to respond to Agenda 2000 reforms. The findings highlight the importance of restoring consumer confidence in UK beef and the complete removal of the worldwide ban on UK beef exports.