Forecasting peak pollutant levels from meteorological variables

The main objective of this paper is to present analytical models relating maximum pollutant concentrations in urban areas with meteorological and other variables. The analysis is based on measurements from Greater Athens Area and is restricted in only one pollutant of special interest, namely N02. The meteorological variables, used in analytical modeling for forecasting pollution concentrations, cover the most important atmospheric processes favoring pollution episodes. The selection of the variables was based both on extensive correlation analysis and on the existing knowledge from the scientific literature. The evaluation of the developed forecasting models showed that their degree of success is promising. The final model equations derived are simple and they can be used easily for operational forecasts from the air quality management authorities.