Testing a source rate estimation method by application to a dispersion experiment

The estimation of a source rate by assimilation of tracer-gas measurements was tested under complex dispersion conditions. The calculations yielded constant source terms that are almost a factor of 2 within the true value. With the aid of such an estimate a valuable short-time forecast resulted. An attempt to reconstruct a possible time dependence of the source rate gave some insight into the dispersion process. But it lead to a questionable source rate fluctuation and yielded a concentration prediction which was worse than in the case of the constant rate. The estimation method also proved to be successful with only few measurements, provided that they were taken at locations for which the model established a strong correlation to the source.