On performing long-term predictions of ozone using the SOMS model

This study examined the potential of using the Simplified Ozone Modeling System (SOMS) (Venkatram et al., 1994. Atmospheric Environment 28, 3665–3678) to generate long-term ozone predictions that may be used to complement the results from more complex air quality models for creating control strategies and establishing long-term trends. A sensitivity study was performed using SOMS to study the application of a model, which is an exponential function of temperature, to estimate the intra-annual biogenic VOC concentration at the receptor in a 1-year run (i.e. 1988). The predictions were made for a core urban site in Baltimore, Maryland. After the sensitivity analyses was completed, the daily maximum ozone concentration (DMOC) was predicted for a 3-year (1987–1989) period for the Baltimore site. The results of the 3-year model prediction were compared with observations.